Ada County, Idaho Market Pulse Week of August 10 · from Luke Gilbert's team | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
This week's lean
The week leaned toward sellers. More buyers committed, and they paid closer to asking. Hesitation had a cost this week. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
What moved · resale · vs last week
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The full board · vs last week
Signed = went under contract. Days = median time on market for listings, or median time to contract for signed. Exact figures in the story below. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
The clearest move this week is on the pending side of new construction. The median price on new builds going under contract jumped to $667,086, up $18,427 from last week. That is the biggest number on the board, and it runs against the softer story I have been telling on new construction lately. Everything else moved in small steps. Prices are mostly holding, listing counts barely shifted, and the days-on-market figures did not budge at all. So the loud number sits next to a very quiet week everywhere else. Existing homes Resale homes did almost nothing on price this week. The median asking price on active listings came in at $623,660, up just $530. Call that flat. The number of resale homes for sale slipped to 918, down 12. On the pending side, resale homes going under contract carried a median price of $579,757, up $5,057. The count of homes under contract rose to 638, up 9. That is a small lean toward more deals getting done, and buyers are still paying below the active asking level. The pace tells the real story here. Active resale listings have been sitting a median of 31 days, unchanged. The homes that actually went under contract did so in a median of 15 days, also unchanged. So the split I keep pointing to is still intact. The homes buyers want move in about two weeks, while everything else waits over a month and drags the active number up. New construction New builds remain the softer segment on the active side. The median asking price on an active new home eased to $643,972, down $9,018. Builders added a few listings, up 11 to 387. Those active homes have been sitting a median of 63 days, unchanged, which is roughly twice as long as resale. Then there is that pending price, up $18,427 to $667,086, with the count of pending new builds down 9 to 150. Those homes took a median of 58 days to go under contract, unchanged. My read is that this is a mix story, not a market surge. When only 150 homes are under contract, a batch of higher-priced closings can pull the median up sharply without the whole segment getting more expensive. I would not read one big pending jump as a turn. It is too early for me to call it anything. The bigger picture The 30-year fixed averaged 6.67% as of August 13, essentially flat from last week. For a buyer looking at a $623,000 resale home in Ada County, that rate is still the single biggest line in the monthly payment, and it is not offering relief. There is a real chance the Fed pushes rates higher rather than lower. Three members dissented at the July hold, and the September 15 to 16 meeting is the next thing I am watching. If borrowing costs stay this high, sellers keep doing the adjusting, not buyers. You can see it in the active resale price barely moving and new build asking prices coming down. The market is still asking both sides for patience. The homes priced to sell are moving in about two weeks, and everything else is learning what waiting costs. Whether that one large pending swing in new construction means anything is the question I am sitting with, and I want another week or two before I trust it. | |||
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Prepared for you by Luke Gilbert |