Ada County, Idaho Market Pulse Week of August 17 · from Luke Gilbert's team | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
This week's lean
Buyers gained ground this week. Sellers held their asking prices. Buyers signed for less. When only one side moves, the market is telling you who blinked. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
What moved · resale · vs last week
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||
The full board · vs last week
Signed = went under contract. Days = median time on market for listings, or median time to contract for signed. Exact figures in the story below. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
The pending side is where I keep landing this week. Resale homes going under contract came in at a median price of $572,990, down $6,767 from last week. That is the biggest single move on the board, and it points the opposite direction from the active listings, which barely budged. So we have a split. What sellers are asking held steady. What buyers are actually agreeing to pay slipped. That gap is worth sitting with. Existing homes Active resale asking prices ticked up to $624,580, up $920. Call that flat. The number of resale homes for sale rose to 927, up 9. Not much movement on either front. The pending numbers tell a different story. Resale homes going under contract carried a median price of $572,990, down $6,767, and the count of those deals fell to 604, down 34. Fewer homes went under contract, and the ones that did came in lower. I would not overread a single week, but the direction is worth noting. Pace still favors the well-priced homes. Active resale listings have been sitting a median of 31 days, unchanged. The homes that went under contract did so in a median of 14 days, down 1. The split I keep pointing to holds. What buyers want moves in about two weeks. Everything else waits over a month. New construction New builds stayed the softer segment on price. Active new home asking prices eased to $641,414, down $2,558. Builders added inventory, up 22 to 409 active listings. Those homes have been sitting a median of 61 days, down 1, which is roughly twice as long as resale sits before selling. On the pending side, new build prices came in at $661,736, down $5,350, with the count down 9 to 141. Those homes took a median of 53 days to go under contract, down 5. That is a meaningful drop in time to contract for new construction, and it is the one bright spot for builders this week. My read is that buyers who want a new home are moving a little faster, even as the price eases. Whether that holds is something I want more weeks to judge. The bigger picture The 30-year fixed averaged 6.65% as of August 20, per Freddie Mac. For a buyer looking at a $624,000 resale home in Ada County, that rate is still the biggest line in the monthly payment, and it is not offering any relief. The national picture is not helping. The Fed held steady, but three members wanted to hike, and at least one major bank now sees a possible September rate increase. If borrowing costs climb rather than fall, sellers keep doing the adjusting, not buyers. You can already see it in that pending resale price sliding while active asking prices hold. Sellers are anchored to what they want. Buyers are negotiating from what they can afford. The homes priced right are still moving in about two weeks. Everything else is learning what waiting costs. That pending price drop on resale is the number I am watching closest, because if it keeps sliding while active prices stay put, the gap between hope and reality gets harder for sellers to ignore. Whether that is a one-week wobble or the start of something is the question I am sitting with. | |||
| |||
Prepared for you by Luke Gilbert |