Ada County, Idaho Market Pulse Week of September 14 · from Luke Gilbert's team | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
This week's lean
The market held its breath this week. Neither side gave much ground. Prices and pace stayed close to where they were last week. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
What moved · resale · vs last week
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The full board · vs last week
Signed = went under contract. Days = median time on market for listings, or median time to contract for signed. Exact figures in the story below. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
The pending price on new construction fell $33,414 this week. That is the biggest single move on the board, and it is worth sitting with before anything else. Everything else moved in smaller steps. But that number tells you where builders are willing to negotiate right now, and it is not a small concession. Existing homes Resale asking prices eased to $627,249, down $3,591 from last week. There are 900 homes for sale, up just 2. So the pool of resale homes barely moved, priced a touch lower than last week. The pending side is the steady hand this week. Resale homes going under contract came in at a median of $565,340, up $1,740. That is one of the few price gains anywhere on the board. But the count of pending deals dropped to 541, down 16. Fewer homes went under contract, and they did so at a slightly firmer price. My read stays the same as it has been. The deals still closing are the well positioned ones. Pace on the resale side is quick. Active resale listings have been sitting a median of 32 days, unchanged. The homes that went under contract took a median of 14 days to get there, down 2. What buyers actually want is still moving in about two weeks. New construction New builds are the softer segment, and the pending price makes that plain. Active new home asking prices slipped to $613,045, down $9,359. Builders added inventory, up 20 to 450 active listings. Those homes have been sitting a median of 66 days, down 1. That is roughly twice as long as resale sits before finding a buyer. The pending number is where the drop lands. New build homes going under contract came in at a median of $590,546, down $33,414. The count ticked up to 125, up 2. Those homes took a median of 55 days to go under contract, up 3. New construction pending prices are now running below resale pending prices, which is a flip worth noting. If I had to guess, builders are cutting harder because they carry the cost of every home that sits, and they would rather move a house than hold it. The bigger picture The 30-year fixed averaged 6.95% as of September 17, per Freddie Mac. That is the heaviest line in the monthly payment for most buyers right now, heavier than the sticker price on some days. The Fed raised its target rate this week, its first hike in over three years. For a buyer financing a $550,000 home here, that shift adds roughly $80 to $100 a month before you account for anything further. And most Fed policymakers penciled in at least one more increase before year-end, so I would not plan around relief arriving soon. Here is what that means on the ground. When rates climb, sellers do the adjusting, not buyers. You can see it in the new construction pending price giving back $33,414 this week. Builders are meeting buyers where they are. Resale sellers are moving slower, and their pending price is holding for now. That resale pending number holding at $565,340 while new construction drops this hard is the tension I keep coming back to. One segment is negotiating, the other is standing firm. It is too early for me to call which posture wins. But if rates stay above 7, I know which one the math favors. | |||
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Prepared for you by Luke Gilbert |