Ada County, Idaho Market Pulse Week of September 21 · from Luke Gilbert's team | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
This week's lean
The week leaned toward buyers. Asking prices held while signed prices slipped. That is buyers doing the negotiating and sellers doing the listening. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
What moved · resale · vs last week
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The full board · vs last week
Signed = went under contract. Days = median time on market for listings, or median time to contract for signed. Exact figures in the story below. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Prices softened almost everywhere this week. Not dramatically, but the direction is consistent, and when four different price lines all point the same way, I pay attention. The clearest read is on the pending side of new construction. Builders keep giving ground, and the resale market keeps quietly holding its footing underneath it. That contrast is the whole story right now. Existing homes Resale asking prices eased to $619,959, down $7,290 from last week. There are 906 homes for sale, up 6. So the pool of resale homes barely grew, priced a bit lower than last week. The pending side is where the resale market shows its spine. Homes going under contract came in at a median of $564,800, down just $540. That is close to flat while other prices dropped harder. The count of pending deals fell to 519, down 22. Fewer homes went under contract, but the ones that did held their price. Pace tells the same story. Active resale listings have been sitting a median of 34 days, up 2. That is how long homes currently for sale have been waiting. The homes that actually went under contract took a median of 14 days to get there, up 1. What buyers want is still moving in about two weeks. Everything else waits. New construction New builds are the softer segment, and every price line here fell. Active asking prices slipped to $607,908, down $5,137. Builders added inventory, up 15 to 464 active listings. Those homes have been sitting a median of 61 days, down 6. That is still far longer than resale sits before finding a buyer. The pending price dropped hardest. New homes going under contract came in at a median of $583,168, down $7,378. The count ticked down to 124, down 1. Those homes took a median of 61 days to go under contract, up 6. New construction pending prices are running below resale pending prices, which is the flip I keep noting. If I had to guess, builders are cutting because they carry the cost of every home that sits, and they would rather move a house than hold it. The bigger picture The 30-year fixed averaged 7.03% as of September 24, per Freddie Mac. That is the heaviest line in the monthly payment for most buyers right now, heavier than the sticker price on some days. Here is what that means on the ground. When borrowing costs sit above 7, sellers do the adjusting, not buyers. You can see it in the new construction pending price giving back $7,378 this week while the resale pending price barely moved. Builders are meeting buyers where they are. Resale sellers are standing firmer, at least for now. For a buyer financing a $550,000 home here, a rate at 7.03% adds up to real money every month, enough to price some move-up and first-time buyers out of the search entirely. That is why the well positioned homes still move in two weeks and everything else lingers. The math is doing the sorting. That resale pending number holding at $564,800 while new construction keeps giving ground is the tension I keep coming back to. One segment is negotiating, the other is standing firm. It is too early for me to call which posture wins. But if rates stay where they are, I know which one the math favors. | |||
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Prepared for you by Luke Gilbert |