Ada County Housing Market, Week of September 28, 2026

Ada County, Idaho Market Pulse

Week of September 28 · from Luke Gilbert's team

This week's lean

Buyers gained ground this week.

Sellers held their asking prices. Buyers signed for less. When only one side moves, the market is telling you who blinked.

What moved · resale · vs last week

The full board · vs last week

Signed = went under contract. Days = median time on market for listings, or median time to contract for signed. Exact figures in the story below.

The resale pending price took the biggest fall this week. Homes going under contract came in at a median of $552,760, down $12,040 from last week. That is a real drop, and it is the first time in a while I am watching the resale side give ground faster than the builders.

For months the story here was that resale sellers held firm while new construction negotiated. This week that script loosened. I am not ready to call it a turn, but it is worth sitting with.

Existing homes

Resale asking prices held essentially flat at $620,690, up $731. There are 884 homes for sale, down 22. So the pool of resale homes shrank a little, priced about where it was last week.

The pending side is where the movement is. Homes going under contract landed at a median of $552,760, down $12,040. That is the largest single-week price move anywhere in the county right now. The count of pending deals fell to 485, down 34. Fewer homes went under contract, and the ones that did came in lower.

Pace still favors the seller on the right home. Active resale listings have been sitting a median of 35 days, up 1. That is how long homes currently for sale have waited. The homes that actually went under contract took a median of 17 days to get there, up 3. The well positioned stuff still moves in under three weeks. Everything else sits.

New construction

New builds stayed the softer segment, but the moves were smaller this week. Active asking prices eased to $601,716, down $6,192. Builders added a touch of inventory, up 4 to 469 active listings. Those homes have been sitting a median of 59 days, down 1. That is still far longer than resale sits before finding a buyer.

On the pending side, new homes going under contract came in at a median of $580,085, down $3,083. The count dropped to 119, down 5. Those homes took a median of 57 days to go under contract, down 5. Here is the part that stands out. New construction pending prices are now running above resale pending prices. That flip from recent weeks is a direct result of the resale pending number falling so hard. If I had to guess, it is not builders holding firmer so much as resale catching up to where the rate math has been pushing all along.

The bigger picture

The 30-year fixed averaged 7.28% as of October 1, per Freddie Mac. That is up again, and it is the heaviest line in the monthly payment for most buyers in this county right now.

Here is what it means on the ground. For a buyer financing a $550,000 home in Meridian, every quarter point higher is real money added to the monthly nut, enough to trim the list of homes you can actually afford. When rates climb toward the mid 7s, the people who were waiting on relief stop waiting and step back entirely. That shrinking buyer pool is exactly what pulls a pending price down $12,040 in a single week. Fewer buyers, more negotiating room, lower sold numbers.

The resale side has been the stubborn one for months. This week it blinked. Whether that is one noisy week or the start of resale meeting buyers where they actually are is the question I am sitting with.